Understanding dynamics and overlapping epidemiologies of HIV, HSV-2, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men.

Introduction: We aimed to investigate the overlapping epidemiologies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men (MSM), and to explore to what extent the epidemiology of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) relates to or differs from that of another STI. Methods: An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was employed to simulate the concurrent transmission of STIs within diverse sexual networks of MSM. The model simulated sexual partnering, birth, death, and STI transmission within each specific sexual network. The model parameters were chosen based on the current knowledge and understanding of the natural history, transmission, and epidemiology of each considered STI. Associations were measured using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC). Results: A total of 500 sexual networks were simulated by varying the mean and variance of the number of partners for both short-term and all partnerships, degree correlation, and clustering coefficient. HSV-2 had the highest current infection prevalence across the simulations, followed by HIV, chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea. Threshold and saturation effects emerged in the relationship between STIs across the simulated networks, and all STIs demonstrated moderate to strong associations. The strongest current infection prevalence association was between HIV and gonorrhea, with an SRCC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.87) and an MIC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74-0.88). The weakest association was between HSV-2 and syphilis, with an SRCC of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.48-0.59) and an MIC of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49-0.65). Gonorrhea exhibited the strongest associations with the other STIs while syphilis had the weakest associations. Across the simulated networks, proportions of the population with zero, one, two, three, four, and five concurrent STI infections were 48.6, 37.7, 11.1, 2.4, 0.3, and < 0.1%, respectively. For lifetime exposure to these infections, these proportions were 13.6, 21.0, 22.9, 24.3, 13.4, and 4.8%, respectively. Conclusion: STI epidemiologies demonstrate substantial overlap and associations, alongside nuanced differences that shape a unique pattern for each STI. Gonorrhea exhibits an "intermediate STI epidemiology," reflected by the highest average correlation coefficient with other STIs.

Human movement avoidance decisions during Coronavirus disease 2019 in Japan.

Understanding host behavioral change in response to epidemics is important to forecast the disease dynamics. To predict the behavioral change relevant to the epidemic situation (e.g., the number of reported cases), we need to know the epidemic situation at the moment of decision, which is difficult to identify from the records of actually performed human mobility. In this study, the largest travel accommodation reservation data covering half of the existed accommodations in Japan was analyzed to observe decision-making timings and how it responded to the changing epidemic situation during Japan's Coronavirus Disease 2019 until February 2023. To this end, we measured mobility avoidance index proposed in Ito et al., 2022 to indicate people's decision of mobility avoidance and quantified it using the time-series of the accommodation booking/cancellation data. We observed matches of the peak dates of the mobility avoidance and the number of reported cases, and mobility avoidance changed proportional to the logarithmic number of reported cases. We also found that the slope of mobility avoidance against the change of the logarithmic number of reported cases were similar among the epidemic waves, while the intercept of that was much reduced as the first epidemic wave passed by. People measure the intensity of epidemic by logarithm of the number of reported cases. The sensitivity of their response is established during the first wave and the people's response became weakened after the first experience, as if the number of reported cases were multiplied by a constant small factor.

Extraction of the CDRH3 sequence of the mouse antibody repertoire selected upon influenza virus infection by subtraction of the background antibody repertoire.

Historically, antibody reactivity to pathogens and vaccine antigens has been evaluated using serological measurements of antigen-specific antibodies. However, it is difficult to evaluate all antibodies that contribute to various functions in a single assay, such as the measurement of the neutralizing antibody titer. Bulk antibody repertoire analysis using next-generation sequencing is a comprehensive method for analyzing the overall antibody response; however, it is unreliable for estimating antigen-specific antibodies due to individual variation. To address this issue, we propose a method to subtract the background signal from the repertoire of data of interest. In this study, we analyzed changes in antibody diversity and inferred the heavy-chain complementarity-determining region 3 (CDRH3) sequences of antibody clones that were selected upon influenza virus infection in a mouse model using bulk repertoire analysis. A decrease in the diversity of the antibody repertoire was observed upon viral infection, along with an increase in neutralizing antibody titers. Using kernel density estimation of sequences in a high-dimensional sequence space with background signal subtraction, we identified several clusters of CDRH3 sequences induced upon influenza virus infection. Most of these repertoires were detected more frequently in infected mice than in uninfected control mice, suggesting that infection-specific antibody sequences can be extracted using this method. Such an accurate extraction of antigen- or infection-specific repertoire information will be a useful tool for vaccine evaluation in the future. IMPORTANCE: As specific interactions between antigens and cell-surface antibodies trigger the proliferation of B-cell clones, the frequency of each antibody sequence in the samples reflects the size of each clonal population. Nevertheless, it is extremely difficult to extract antigen-specific antibody sequences from the comprehensive bulk antibody sequences obtained from blood samples due to repertoire bias influenced by exposure to dietary antigens and other infectious agents. This issue can be addressed by subtracting the background noise from the post-immunization or post-infection repertoire data. In the present study, we propose a method to quantify repertoire data from comprehensive repertoire data. This method allowed subtraction of the background repertoire, resulting in more accurate extraction of expanded antibody repertoires upon influenza virus infection. This accurate extraction of antigen- or infection-specific repertoire information is a useful tool for vaccine evaluation.

Shedding of rubella virus in postsymptomatic individuals; viral RNA load is a potential indicator to estimate candidate patients excreting infectious rubella virus.

BACKGROUND: Since the first isolation of rubella virus (RuV) in 1962, comprehensive data regarding the quantitative evaluation of RuV shedding remain unavailable. In this study, we evaluated the shedding of viral RNA and infectious virus in patients with acute RuV infection. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed 767 specimens, including serum/plasma, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), throat swabs, and urine, obtained from 251 patients with rubella. The viral RNA load and the presence of infectious RuV were determined using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and virus isolation. RESULTS: Virus excretion peaked 0-2 days after rash onset and decreased over time. The median viral RNA load dropped to an undetectable level on day 3 after rash onset in serum/plasma, day 2 in PBMCs, days 10-13 in throat swabs, and days 6-7 in urine. Infectious virus could be isolated for up to day 2 after rash onset in serum/plasma, day 1 in PBMCs, days 8-9 in throat swabs, and days 4-5 in urine. The minimum viral RNA load that allowed virus isolation was 961 copies/mL in serum/plasma, 784 copies/mL in PBMCs, 650 copies/mL in throat swabs, and 304 copies/mL in urine. A higher viral RNA load indicated a higher likelihood of the presence of infectious virus. CONCLUSION: These findings would contribute to improve algorithms for rubella surveillance and diagnosis. In addition, this study indicates that the results of RT-qPCR enable efficient rubella control by estimating candidate patients excreting infectious virus, which could help prevent viral transmission at an early stage and eliminate rubella ultimately.

Impact of healthcare capacity disparities on the COVID-19 vaccination coverage in the United States: A cross-sectional study.

Background: The impact of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US has been hampered by a substantial geographical heterogeneity of the vaccination coverage. Several studies have proposed vaccination hesitancy as a key driver of the vaccination uptake disparities. However, the impact of other important structural determinants such as local disparities in healthcare capacity is virtually unknown. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we conducted causal inference and geospatial analyses to assess the impact of healthcare capacity on the vaccination coverage disparity in the US. We evaluated the causal relationship between the healthcare system capacity of 2417 US counties and their COVID-19 vaccination rate. We also conducted geospatial analyses using spatial scan statistics to identify areas with low vaccination rates. Findings: We found a causal effect of the constraints in the healthcare capacity of a county and its low-vaccination uptake. Counties with higher constraints in their healthcare capacity were more probable to have COVID-19 vaccination rates ≤50, with 35% higher constraints in low-vaccinated areas (vaccination rates ≤ 50) compared to high-vaccinated areas (vaccination rates > 50). We also found that COVID-19 vaccination in the US exhibits a distinct spatial structure with defined "vaccination coldspots". Interpretation: We found that the healthcare capacity of a county is an important determinant of low vaccine uptake. Our study highlights that even in high-income nations, internal disparities in healthcare capacity play an important role in the health outcomes of the nation. Therefore, strengthening the funding and infrastructure of the healthcare system, particularly in rural underserved areas, should be intensified to help vulnerable communities. Funding: None.

Future behaviours decision-making regarding travel avoidance during COVID-19 outbreaks.

Human behavioural changes are poorly understood, and this limitation has been a serious obstacle to epidemic forecasting. It is generally understood that people change their respective behaviours to reduce the risk of infection in response to the status of an epidemic or government interventions. We must first identify the factors that lead to such decision-making to predict these changes. However, due to an absence of a method to observe decision-making for future behaviour, understanding the behavioural responses to disease is limited. Here, we show that accommodation reservation data could reveal the decision-making process that underpins behavioural changes, travel avoidance, for reducing the risk of COVID-19 infections. We found that the motivation to avoid travel with respect to only short-term future behaviours dynamically varied and was associated with the outbreak status and/or the interventions of the government. Our developed method can quantitatively measure and predict a large-scale population's behaviour to determine the future risk of COVID-19 infections. These findings enable us to better understand behavioural changes in response to disease spread, and thus, contribute to the development of reliable long-term forecasting of disease spread.

Measuring impact of vaccination among wildlife: The case of bait vaccine campaigns for classical swine fever epidemic among wild boar in Japan.

Understanding the impact of vaccination in a host population is essential to control infectious diseases. However, the impact of bait vaccination against wildlife diseases is difficult to evaluate. The vaccination history of host animals is generally not observable in wildlife, and it is difficult to distinguish immunity by vaccination from that caused by disease infection. For these reasons, the impact of bait vaccination against classical swine fever (CSF) in wild boar inhabiting Japan has not been evaluated accurately. In this study, we aimed to estimate the impact of the bait vaccination campaign by modelling the dynamics of CSF and the vaccination process among a Japanese wild boar population. The model was designed to estimate the impact of bait vaccination despite lack of data regarding the demography and movement of wild boar. Using our model, we solved the theoretical relationship between the impact of vaccination, the time-series change in the proportion of infected wild boar, and that of immunised wild boar. Using this derived relationship, the increase in antibody prevalence against CSF because of vaccine campaigns in 2019 was estimated to be 12.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 7.8-16.5). Referring to previous reports on the basic reproduction number (R0) of CSF in wild boar living outside Japan, the amount of vaccine distribution required for CSF elimination by reducing the effective reproduction number under unity was also estimated. An approximate 1.6 (when R0 = 1.5, target vaccination coverage is 33.3% of total population) to 2.9 (when R0 = 2.5, target vaccination coverage is 60.0% of total population) times larger amount of vaccine distribution would be required than the total amount of vaccine distribution in four vaccination campaigns in 2019.

HIV incidence and impact of interventions among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and north Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of HIV infection among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and north Africa is not well known. We aimed to assess HIV incidence, the contribution of heterosexual sex work networks to these numbers, and the effect of interventions by use of mathematical modelling. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a novel, individual-based model to simulate HIV epidemic dynamics in heterosexual sex work networks. We applied this model to 12 countries in the Middle East and north Africa that had sufficient data to estimate incidence in 2020 and the impact of interventions by 2030 (Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen). Model-input parameters were provided through a systematic review of HIV prevalence, sexual and injecting behaviours, and risk group size estimates of female sex workers and clients. Model output was number of incident HIV infections under different modelling scenarios for each country. Summary statistics were generated on these model output scenarios. FINDINGS: Based on the output of our model, we estimated a total of 14 604 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] CI 7929-31 819) new HIV infections in the 12 countries in 2020 among female sex workers, clients, and spouses, which constituted 28·1% of 51 995 total new cases in all adults in these 12 countries combined. Model-estimated number of new infections in 2020 in the 12 countries combined was 3471 (95% UI 1295-10 308) in female sex workers, 6416 (3144-14 223) in clients, and 4717 (3490-7288) in client spouses. Contribution of incidence in heterosexual sex work networks to total incidence varied widely, ranging from 3·3% in Pakistan to 71·8% in South Sudan and 72·7% in Djibouti. Incidence in heterosexual sex work networks was distributed roughly equally among female sex workers, clients, and client spouses. Estimated incidence rates among female sex workers per 1000 person-years ranged from 0·4 (95% UI 0·0-7·1) in Yemen to 34·3 (17·2-59·6) in South Sudan. In countries where HIV acquisition through injecting drug use creates substantial exposure for female sex workers who inject drugs, estimated incidence rates per 1000 person-years ranged from 5·1 (95% UI 0·0-35·1) in Iran to 45·8 (0·0-428·6) in Pakistan. The model output predicted that any of the programmed interventions would substantially reduce incidence. Even when a subpopulation did not benefit directly from an intervention, it benefited indirectly through reduction in onward transmission, and indirect impact was often half as large as the direct impact. INTERPRETATION: Substantial HIV incidence occurs in heterosexual sex work networks across the Middle East and north Africa with client spouses being heavily affected, in addition to female sex workers and clients. Rapid scaling-up of comprehensive treatment and prevention services for female sex workers is urgently needed. FUNDING: Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation), the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core at the Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Qatar University-Marubeni, the UK Medical Research Council, and the UK Department for International Development.

Usefulness of a 3D-printing air sampler for capturing live airborne bacteria and exploring the environmental factors that can influence bacterial dynamics.

We created a handmade 3D-printed air sampler to effectively collect live airborne bacteria, and determined which environmental factors influenced the bacteria. Bacterial colony forming units (CFUs) in the air samples (n = 37) were monitored by recording the environmental changes occurring over time, then determining the presence/absence of correlations among such changes. The bacterial CFUs changed sharply and were significantly correlated with the DNA concentrations, indicating that the captured bacteria made up most of the airborne bacteria. Spearman's rank correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between the bacterial CFU values and some environmental factors (humidity, wind speed, insolation, and 24-h rainfall). Similarly the significant associations of CFU with humidity and wind speed were also found by multiple regression analysis with box-cox transformation. Among our panel of airborne bacteria (952 strains), 70 strains were identified as soil-derived Bacillus via the production of Escherichia coli- and Staphylococcus aureus-growth inhibiting antibiotics and by 16S rDNA typing. Soil-derived protozoa were also isolated from the air samples. We conclude that the airborne bacteria mainly derived from soil can alter in number according to environmental changes. Our sampler, which was created by easy-to-customize 3D printing, is a useful device for understanding the dynamics of live airborne bacteria.

Immunization Coverage and Antibody Retention against Rabies in Domestic Dogs in Lusaka District, Zambia.

Rabies remains endemic in Zambia. Despite conducting canine vaccinations in Lusaka district, the vaccination coverage and actual seropositivity in the dog population in Lusaka district are rarely evaluated. This study estimated the seropositivity-based immunization coverage in the owned dog population in Lusaka district using the expanded program on immunization cluster survey method. The time-series trend of neutralizing antibodies against rabies in vaccinated dogs was also evaluated. Of 366 dogs in 200 dog-owning households in Lusaka district, blood samples were collected successfully from 251 dogs. In the sampled dogs, 42.2% (106/251) had an antibody titer ≥0.5 IU/mL. When the 115 dogs whose blood was not collected were assumed to be seronegative, the minimum immunization coverage in Lusaka district's owned dog population was estimated at 29.0% (95% confidence interval: 22.4-35.5). It was also found that a single vaccination with certified vaccines is capable of inducing protective levels of antibodies. In contrast, higher antibody titers were observed in multiple-vaccinated dogs than in single-vaccinated dogs, coupled with the observation of a decline in antibody titer over time. These results suggest the importance of continuous booster immunization to maintain herd immunity and provide useful information to plan mass vaccination against rabies in Zambia.

Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050.

BACKGROUND: We analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. RESULTS: Over 1950-2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15-49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by 2020 and 600 000 by 2050. Women were disproportionately affected, averaging 75% higher seroprevalence, 95% higher incidence rate, and 71% higher annual number of infections. In 2020, 78% of infections were acquired by those 15-34 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic has undergone a major transition over a century, with the greatest impact in those 15-34 years of age. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding >600 000 new infections every year.

Estimation of the Actual Incidence of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Emergent Hotspots: The Example of Hokkaido, Japan during February-March 2020.

Following the first report of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sapporo city, Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, on 14 February 2020, a surge of cases was observed in Hokkaido during February and March. As of 6 March, 90 cases were diagnosed in Hokkaido. Unfortunately, many infected persons may not have been recognized due to having mild or no symptoms during the initial months of the outbreak. We therefore aimed to predict the actual number of COVID-19 cases in (i) Hokkaido Prefecture and (ii) Sapporo city using data on cases diagnosed outside these areas. Two statistical frameworks involving a balance equation and an extrapolated linear regression model with a negative binomial link were used for deriving both estimates, respectively. The estimated cumulative incidence in Hokkaido as of 27 February was 2,297 cases (95% confidence interval (CI): 382-7091) based on data on travelers outbound from Hokkaido. The cumulative incidence in Sapporo city as of 28 February was estimated at 2233 cases (95% CI: 0-4893) based on the count of confirmed cases within Hokkaido. Both approaches resulted in similar estimates, indicating a higher incidence of infections in Hokkaido than were detected by the surveillance system. This quantification of the gap between detected and estimated cases helped to inform the public health response at the beginning of the pandemic and provided insight into the possible scope of undetected transmission for future assessments.

Age-dependent association between SARS-CoV-2 cases reported by passive surveillance and viral load in wastewater.

The actual number of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is difficult to estimate using a case-reporting system (i.e., passive surveillance) alone because of asymptomatic infection. While wastewater-based epidemiology has been implemented as an alternative/additional monitoring tool to reduce reporting bias, the relationship between passive and wastewater surveillance data has not yet been explicitly examined. As there is strong age dependency in the symptomatic ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infections, here, we aimed to estimate i) an age-dependent association between the number of reported cases and viral load in wastewater and ii) the time lag between these time series. The viral load in wastewater was modeled as a combination of contributions from virus shedding by different age groups, incorporating the delay, and fitted with daily case count data collected from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater recorded by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. The estimated lag between the time series of viral loads in wastewater and of reported cases was 10.8 (95% confidence interval: 10.2-11.6) and 8.8 (8.4-9.1) days for the northern and southern areas of the wastewater treatment plant, respectively. The estimated contribution rate of a reported case to the viral load in wastewater in the 0-19 yr age group was 0.38 (0.35-0.41) and 0.40 (0.37-0.43) for the northern and southern areas, and that in the 80+ yr age group was 0.67 (0.65-0.69) and 0.51 (0.49-0.52) for the northern and southern areas, respectively. The estimated lag between these time series suggested the predictability of reported cases 10 days later using viral loads in wastewater. The contribution of a reported case in passive surveillance to the viral load in wastewater differed by age, suggesting a large variation in viral shedding kinetics among age groups.

Potent priming by inactivated whole influenza virus particle vaccines is linked to viral RNA uptake into antigen presenting cells.

Current detergent or ether-disrupted split vaccines (SVs) for influenza do not always induce adequate immune responses, especially in young children. This contrasts with the whole virus particle vaccines (WPVs) originally used against influenza that were immunogenic in both adults and children but were replaced by SV in the 1970s due to concerns with reactogenicity. In this study, we re-evaluated the immunogenicity of WPV and SV, prepared from the same batch of purified influenza virus, in cynomolgus macaques and confirmed that WPV is superior to SV in priming potency. In addition, we compared the ability of WPV and SV to induce innate immune responses, including the maturation of dendritic cells (DCs) in vitro. WPV stimulated greater production of inflammatory cytokines and type-I interferon in immune cells from mice and macaques compared to SV. Since these innate responses are likely triggered by the activation of pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) by viral RNA, the quantity and quality of viral RNA in each vaccine were assessed. Although the quantity of viral RNA was similar in the two vaccines, the amount of viral RNA of a length that can be recognized by PRRs was over 100-fold greater in WPV than in SV. More importantly, 1000-fold more viral RNA was delivered to DCs by WPV than by SV when exposed to preparations containing the same amount of HA protein. Furthermore, WPV induced up-regulation of the DC maturation marker CD86 on murine DCs, while SV did not. The present results suggest that the activation of antigen-presenting DCs, by PRR-recognizable viral RNA contained in WPV is responsible for the effective priming potency of WPV observed in naïve mice and macaques. WPV is thus recommended as an alternative option for seasonal influenza vaccines, especially for children.

Domestic dog demographics and estimates of canine vaccination coverage in a rural area of Zambia for the elimination of rabies.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 75% or more of the human rabies cases in Africa occur in rural settings, which underscores the importance of rabies control in these areas. Understanding dog demographics can help design strategies for rabies control and plan and conduct canine mass vaccination campaigns effectively in African countries. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted to investigate domestic dog demographics in Kalambabakali, in the rural Mazabuka District of Zambia. The population of ownerless dogs and the total achievable vaccination coverage among the total dog population was estimated using the capture-recapture-based Bayesian model by conducting a canine mass vaccination campaign. This study revealed that 29% of the domestic dog population was under one year old, and 57.7% of those were under three months old and thus were not eligible for the canine rabies vaccination in Zambia. The population growth was estimated at 15% per annum based on the cross-sectional household survey. The population of ownerless dogs was estimated to be small, with an ownerless-to-owned-dog ratio of 0.01-0.06 in the target zones. The achieved overall vaccination coverage from the first mass vaccination was estimated 19.8-51.6%. This low coverage was principally attributed to the owners' lack of information, unavailability, and dog-handling difficulties. The follow-up mass vaccination campaign achieved an overall coverage of 54.8-76.2%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This paper indicates the potential for controlling canine rabies through mass vaccination in rural Zambia. Rabies education and responsible dog ownership are required to achieve high and sustainable vaccination coverage. Our findings also propose including puppies below three months old in the target population for rabies vaccination and emphasize that securing an annual enforcement of canine mass vaccination that reaches 70% coverage in the dog population is necessary to maintain protective herd immunity.

Updating the influenza virus library at Hokkaido University -It's potential for the use of pandemic vaccine strain candidates and diagnosis.

Genetic reassortment of influenza A viruses through cross-species transmission contributes to the generation of pandemic influenza viruses. To provide information on the ecology of influenza viruses, we have been conducting a global surveillance of zoonotic influenza and establishing an influenza virus library. Of 4580 influenza virus strains in the library, 3891 have been isolated from over 70 different bird species. The remaining 689 strains were isolated from humans, pigs, horses, seal, whale, and the environment. Phylogenetic analyses of the HA genes of the library isolates demonstrate that the library strains are distributed to all major known clusters of the H1, H2 and H3 subtypes of HA genes that are prevalent in humans. Since past pandemic influenza viruses are most likely genetic reassortants of zoonotic and seasonal influenza viruses, a vast collection of influenza A virus strains from various hosts should be useful for vaccine preparation and diagnosis for future pandemics.

Genetic Diversity of African Trypanosomes in Tsetse Flies and Cattle From the Kafue Ecosystem.

We clarified the genetic diversity of Trypanosoma spp. within the Kafue ecosystem, using PCR targeting the internal transcribed spacer 1 and the cathepsin L-like cysteine protease (CatL) sequences. The overall prevalence of Trypanosoma spp. in cattle and tsetse flies was 12.65 and 26.85%, respectively. Cattle positive for Trypanosoma vivax had a significantly lower packed cell volume, suggesting that T. vivax is the dominant Trypanosoma spp. causing anemia in this area. Among the 12 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of T. vivax CatL sequences detected, one was from a known T. vivax lineage, two OTUs were from known T. vivax-like lineages, and nine OTUs were considered novel T. vivax-like lineages. These findings support previous reports that indicated the extensive diversity of T. vivax-like lineages. The findings also indicate that combining CatL PCR with next generation sequencing is useful in assessing Trypanosoma spp. diversity, especially for T. vivax and T. vivax-like lineages. In addition, the 5.42% prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense found in cattle raises concern in the community and requires careful monitoring of human African trypanosomiasis.

Duration of SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in faeces as a parameter for wastewater-based epidemiology: Re-analysis of patient data using a shedding dynamics model.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is one of the most promising approaches to effectively monitor the spread of COVID-19. The virus concentration in faeces and its temporal variations are essential information for WBE. While some clinical studies have reported SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in faeces, the value varies amongst patients and changes over time. The present study aimed to examine how the temporal variations in the concentration of virus in faeces affect the monitoring of disease incidence. We reanalysed the experimental findings of clinical studies to estimate the duration of virus shedding and the faecal virus concentration. Available experimental data as of 23 October 2020 were collected. The viral shedding kinetics was modelled, and the dynamic model was fitted to the collected data by a Bayesian framework. Using posterior distributions, the duration of viral shedding and the concentration of virus copies in faeces over time were computed. We estimated the median concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in faeces as 3.4 (95% CrI: 0.24-6.5) log copies per gram-faeces over the shedding period, and our model implied that the duration of viral shedding was 26.0 days (95% CrI: 21.7-34.9), given the current standard quantification limit (Ct = 40). With simulated incidences, our results also indicated that a one-week delay between symptom onset and wastewater sampling increased the estimation of incidence by a factor of 17.2 (i.e., 101.24 times higher). Our results demonstrated that the temporal variation in virus concentration in faeces affects microbial monitoring systems such as WBE. The present study also implied the need for adjusting the estimates of virus concentration in faeces by incorporating the kinetics of unobserved concentrations. The method used in this study is easily implemented in further simulations; therefore, the results of this study might contribute to enhancing disease surveillance and risk assessments that require quantities of virus to be excreted into the environment.

Estimation of the Lethality Rate, Recovery Rate, and Case Fatality Ratio of Classical Swine Fever in Japanese Wild Boar: An Analysis of the Epidemics From September 2018 to March 2019.

Understanding the morbidity and lethality of diseases is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasure against the epidemics (e.g., vaccination). To estimate them, detailed data on host population dynamics are required; however, estimating the population size for wildlife is often difficult. We aimed to elucidate the morbidity and lethality of classical swine fever (CSF) currently highly prevalent in the wild boar population in Japan. To this end, we estimated lethality rate, recovery rate, and case fatality ratio (CFR) of CSF without detailed data on the population estimates of wild boar. A mathematical model was constructed to describe the CSF dynamics and population dynamics of wild boar. We fitted the model to the (i) results of the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test for the CSFV gene and the (ii) results of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for the antibody against CSFV in sampled wild boar. In the 280 wild boar sampled from September 2018 to March 2019 in the major CSF-affected area in Japan, the lethality rate and recovery rate of CSF per week were estimated as 0.165 (95% confidence interval: 0.081-0.250) and 0.004 (0-0.009), respectively. While the estimate of lethality rate of CSF was similar with the estimates in previous studies, the recovery rate was lower than those reported previously. CFR was estimated as 0.959 (0.904-0.981) using our estimate of recovery rate. This study is the first to estimate lethality rate of CSF from the dynamics of CSF epidemics in the wild boar population. Since the value of CFR is sensitive to the value of recovery rate, the accuracy in the estimate of recovery rate is a key for the accurate estimation of CFR. A long-term transmission experiment of moderately virulent strains may lead to more accurate estimation of the recovery rate and CFR of CSF.

The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age.

Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of COVID-19 mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of mortality in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R0). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 infections in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of (i) the mortality rate and (ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19.